INTERVIEW. 2024 presidential election: Americans forget Trump.

If the populist billionaire were to win the presidential election on November 5th, what would that mean? The violence that occurred during his stay in the White House appears to have been forgotten by voters.

According to researcher Laurence Nardon, who is the head of the Americas programme at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Joe Biden’s image is not any better.

With regard to this particular instance, it is true that we have the unique circumstance of having in both camps an obvious contender from the very beginning. The subject of the primaries had been resolved by the middle of March: both Joe Biden and Donald Trump had accumulated sufficient candidates to guarantee that their respective parties would receive the nomination.

On the Democratic side, it was a given that no one would challenge a president who was about to leave office. In the most recent instance, Senator Ted Kennedy, the brother of the former President, competed against Jimmy Carter. Carter emerged victorious in the nomination race, but the Democratic Party was so weakened that they were unable to win the presidential election. The fact that Trump would not be running for office again would have been a relief to many people on the Republican side.

On the other hand, he has such a strong grip on a fanatical base, which accounts for approximately forty percent of the Republican electorate, that all of the party officials have fallen into line. In the event that they went against Trump and his supporters, they were concerned that they would have a tough time re-election in their respective districts.

In spite of this, this campaign is intriguing since it is distinct from the two campaigns that came before it. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 was based on his policies of restricting immigration, opposing free trade, and closing borders. Despite the fact that this was quite well received, he had no plans to run for office because he did not anticipate being elected. Biden was elected vice president in 2020 as a result of the rejection of Trump.

All of the programmes, which will not be considered secondary at this moment. Both of these possibilities are quite clear, and the Americans will have to choose one of them.

Biden has a significant track record, and he has been the one in charge of an extraordinarily disruptive programme, which he intends to continue. His actions brought an end to the cycle of neoliberal economics, which had been initiated by Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

Through big schemes that received significant support from the federal government, such as the Infrastructure and Jobs Act at the beginning of the process or the Inflation Reduction Act, he reintroduced state intervention in the economy, similar to what occurred during the New Deal or in the 1960s. This strategy is characterised by a number of characteristics, including protectionist towards China, support for the green industry, and support for the middle classes.

This is his third attempt at running for office, and for the very first time – which is completely unbelievable! – he is running with a very serious programme called Project 2025. This programme was developed by the Heritage Foundation, a highly conservative think tank in Washington, which also mobilised other think tanks. in order to develop this extremely extensive project, which spans over 900 pages and is subject by subject, conservative tanks. In addition to that, they organised teams to carry it out.

Unlike in 2016, when no one wanted to work for Trump, this time they are picking people and preparing them to replace thousands of federal public servants who would be fired. This is the second significant difference between the two years. In American parlance, “they mean business” is a common expression. The intention is to put it into action. It is now possible to implement the action plan for the first half year.

A significant number of people in the United States of America devoted a number of hours each day to following the every action of the then-President Donald J. Trump. And then, at some point in time after the riot that occurred at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and prior to his initial indictment, they significantly ceased.

To put it simply, they are having a hard time recalling everything. After more than three years of separation from the daily assault, the memories of the American people of events that, at the time, felt like they were being slashed to the bone have become hazy, altered, and in some cases, distorted.

Based on the results of polls, it appears that people’ opinions of Mr. Trump’s policies and his presidency have become more favourable in the past. When asked about their memories of one of the most turbulent eras in contemporary politics, people frequently have a fuzzy recollection of the event. That is hardly surprising, according to social scientists. In this day and age of extreme partisanship, there is very little consensus among the general public on the collective memory of events that took place in public.

On the other hand, as Mr. Trump works towards regaining power, the question of what exactly voters remember has never been more essential than it is right now. Mr. Biden’s team is depending on voters to focused on Mr. Trump, hoping that they will remember why they refused him a second term in office. This is in contrast to Mr. Trump’s campaign, which is betting its campaign on a sense of nostalgia for a moment that occurred not too long ago.

“Remember how you felt the day after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016,” the Biden campaign stated in a request for financial support for the campaign that was sent out a month ago. “Do you remember walking around in a state of disbelief and fear amidst the impending events?”

For the time being, it seems that the passage of time is working in Mr. Trump’s favour, as swing voters are basing their support on their feelings about the present rather than the past. Twenty percent of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters now said they back Mr. Trump, according to a poll that was done by Siena College and the New York Times at the end of the previous month. On the other hand, almost none of Mr. Trump’s voters have switched their support to Mr. Biden. The poll indicated that people have a much more favourable opinion of Mr. Trump’s policies than they do of Mr. Biden’s.

“What has been clear for a while, especially among swing voters, is that Biden is just more front and centre,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant who opposes Mr. Trump and has conducted dozens of focus groups with conservative and swing voters in recent months. Longwell has been conducting these focus groups. It is clear that they are aware of the things that they dislike about Biden, but they have forgotten the things that they dislike about Trump.

The results of polls indicate that Mr. Trump has also made headway with voters who may have been too young to recall the specifics of his first year in office adequately. At the time that Mr. Trump was first elected, over 4.2 million individuals who are now 18 years old and eligible to vote for the first time this year were still in middle school. According to polls, they have been less favourable towards Mr. Biden in part because of his support for Israel in the conflict in Gaza. They have stated that they prefer Mr. Trump on the topic, despite the fact that Mr. Trump was also a constant ally to Israel when he was in government.

According to Ian Barrs, who works at a funeral home in Atlantic, Iowa, there are other aspects of Mr. Trump’s record that appear to be diminishing. He frequently finds himself in awe of the fact that his pals who support Trump consider the years 2017 through 2019 to be the best of times. He stated that everyone had forgotten the year 2020 as well as the year of Covid.

The statement made by Mr. Barrs was, “Now I don’t blame Trump for Covid.” However, all of those things, including the lockdowns, took place while Trump was in office.

A prevalent sentiment among Americans is to look back on former presidents with fondness. As a result of what they “heard or remembered,” according to a Gallup survey conducted in June, forty-six percent of Americans were satisfied with the way in which Mr. Trump was managing his presidency. At the time that Mr. Trump stepped down from office, his approval rating stood at 34%.

When asked about the incidents that he remembered about the Trump administration, Roger Laney, a 55-year-old independent voter in South Carolina who was indecisive about his vote, described an overall sense of “chaos.”

“He made great media,” Mr. Laney recalled, recalling how he would listen to public radio on his way home from work and think, “OK, what has Trump done this time?” he said that he would listen to the radio.

Many people in the United States have developed an obsession with Trump news as a result of the frenetic speed of the Trump years, or they have entirely tuned out of it. The rat-a-tat volume occurred at the same time as the continuation of the emergence of algorithm-driven, compartmentalised social media platforms and the concurrent decrease in attention spans.

According to Andrew Franks, a professor of political psychology at the University of Washington, the milieu in which the incident occurred produced a kind of numbness that cannot be overcome by anything, not even 91 felony counts or large civil damages for defamation and fraud.

In his statement, Dr. Franks stated that negative information about Trump is no longer distinguishable; rather, it is simply a part of the air that we breathe. In the water that we are swimming in, it is the water. As a result, it turns into a conditioned emotional response, in which you either experience feelings of delight and adoration or disgust and rage when you see his face. However, each solitary act is but a drop in the ocean.

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